EAEU’s Economy: Growth, but Not Strong; High Inflation and Weaker Trade

In terms of production, EAEU industrial output in the first nine months of 2025 increased by 1.1% compared with the same period in 2024. There is a clear divergence within the bloc: Armenia (-5.7%) and Belarus (-0.8%) saw declines, while Kazakhstan (+7.4%) and Kyrgyzstan (+10.2%) recorded strong growth; the Russian Federation – the largest economy – posted a modest increase of 0.7%. Agricultural output across the union rose by 2.1%, with solid growth in Armenia (+6.1%), Kazakhstan (+4.4%) and Russia (+2%), while Belarus fell by 1%.

Construction activity was one of the bright spots for the EAEU. The total volume of completed construction works rose by 4.7%, with very high growth rates in the smaller economies: Armenia (+29.6%), Kyrgyzstan (+29.1%) and Kazakhstan (+14.9%), indicating that investment demand in infrastructure, housing and industry is still being pushed forward. Retail sales across the bloc increased by 3%, suggesting that consumer demand remains in place, particularly strong in Kyrgyzstan (+23.2%), Belarus (+8.2%) and Kazakhstan (+7.1%), while Russia recorded a more modest rise (+2.1%).

By contrast, inflation is a key source of concern. The consumer price index (CPI) for goods and services in the EAEU rose by an average of 9.3% in the first nine months of 2025. Kazakhstan registered the highest inflation rate (+11%), followed by Russia (+9.4%), Kyrgyzstan (+7.8%) and Belarus (+6.63%), while Armenia managed to keep inflation lower (+3.3%). Elevated inflation erodes real incomes and directly affects purchasing power and macroeconomic stability in the medium term.

With regard to GDP growth, the Central Asian members of the bloc recorded impressive rates: Kyrgyzstan expanded by 10%, Kazakhstan by 6.3% and Armenia by 6.2%. Belarus grew by 1.6% and Russia by 1%. This indicates that growth in the EAEU is currently driven mainly by the smaller economies, while Russia is expanding more slowly under considerable internal and external pressures.

On the trade side, the value of exports and imports of most EAEU members declined over the nine-month period. Russian exports fell by 4.6%, Kazakhstan’s by 5.1%, Armenia’s by as much as 46.8%, and Kyrgyzstan’s by 6.8%, while Belarus registered a milder drop of 2.9%. Imports showed a more mixed pattern: Kazakhstan (+4.5%) and Belarus (+1.6%) increased their imports, whereas Russia (-1%), Kyrgyzstan (-3%) and Armenia (-33.4%) saw decreases. Overall, total trade (exports plus imports) of the member states shrank, reflecting a difficult international trade environment and adjustments in trade flows driven by sanctions and the restructuring of global supply chains.

Viet Nam–EAEU Trade: Modest in Scale, Heavily Concentrated on Russia

According to the General Department of Viet Nam Customs, in the first nine months of 2025 merchandise trade between Viet Nam and the EAEU reached around 4.46 billion USD, up 4% year-on-year. Of this, Viet Nam’s exports to the bloc totalled 2.53 billion USD (up 2.4%), while imports from the bloc reached 1.93 billion USD (up 6.3%). Viet Nam continued to register a trade surplus, but the faster growth came from the import side.

The Russian Federation remains Viet Nam’s key partner, accounting for as much as 82% of total Viet Nam–EAEU trade. Two-way trade between Viet Nam and Russia in the first nine months stood at nearly 3.6 billion USD, an increase of 2.4%. Viet Nam’s exports to Russia were approximately 1.76 billion USD (down slightly by 1.2%), while imports from Russia amounted to about 1.84 billion USD (up 6.1%), indicating that the bilateral trade balance is gradually shifting towards a smaller surplus for Viet Nam.

In terms of exports to Russia, textiles and garments are the largest category, with a value of around 450 million USD (some 25.5% of Viet Nam’s total exports to Russia), confirming Russia’s importance as a market for Vietnamese apparel. Coffee ranks second at roughly 351.5 million USD (20%), underscoring Russia’s role as a promising consumer market for Vietnamese coffee. These are followed by machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts (around 164.1 million USD – 9.3%) and seafood (159 million USD – 9%). Some product groups saw very strong growth, such as steel (up over 600%), footwear (up nearly 82%), coffee (up nearly 48%) and cashew nuts (up more than 24%).

On the import side, Viet Nam mainly buys coal of all kinds from Russia (about 644 million USD – 34.8% of total imports from Russia), fertilisers (276 million USD – 15%) and primary plastics (106 million USD – 5.7%), along with ores and other minerals, petroleum products, and completely built-up motor vehicles. Many of these categories have recorded very high growth rates, highlighting Russia’s role as a major supplier of raw materials and energy inputs for Viet Nam’s domestic production.

For the other EAEU members, trade volumes with Viet Nam are still relatively modest but exhibit some notable features. Armenia is a rather special case: Viet Nam exports as much as 412.6 million USD to Armenia while importing only 0.5 million USD. Kazakhstan is also a potential market, with total trade close to 390 million USD (341.5 million USD in exports and 48.9 million USD in imports). Phones and components account for an overwhelming share of Viet Nam’s exports to both Armenia and Kazakhstan (around 86% and 72% respectively), followed by computers, electronic products and components. This indicates that Viet Nam’s export structure to these markets is highly concentrated in a few technology and electronics categories, which entails a risk of over-dependence on specific product groups.

Implications for Viet Nam: Diversification, Niche Markets and Linking Trade to Strategic Inputs

First, overall, the EAEU is a medium-sized market for Viet Nam, but it plays an important complementary role in Viet Nam’s energy and raw-material security strategy. Russia and Kazakhstan are major suppliers of coal, fertilisers, oil, minerals and primary plastics, helping to ensure essential inputs for industrial and agricultural production. In a context where many traditional markets may tighten trade barriers, maintaining and expanding ties with the EAEU enables Viet Nam to diversify its sources of supply and reduce the risk of supply disruptions.

Second, robust GDP growth in Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (above 6–10%), combined with strong retail sales, indicates improving domestic demand in several EAEU economies. This creates opportunities for Vietnamese enterprises to increase exports of consumer goods, textiles and garments, footwear, electronics and processed foods. However, the current export structure is excessively concentrated on phones and components in Armenia and Kazakhstan. Viet Nam needs to gradually diversify its product range and tap into the emerging middle-class segments in these markets, thereby mitigating risks in case of policy changes affecting electronics imports.

Third, high inflation in the EAEU (averaging around 9.3%) and weakening trade suggest that import demand could come under pressure in the medium to long term, while exchange-rate and payment risks may increase. Vietnamese enterprises should exercise caution when signing long-term contracts, step up the use of risk-hedging instruments, diversify payment methods and fully factor in financing costs and price volatility when planning exports to this region.

Fourth, with respect to Russia specifically, the strong growth of imports of coal, fertilisers, plastic raw materials, motor vehicles and other products represents both an opportunity and a requirement for Viet Nam to link trade more closely with its domestic industrial development strategy. Cheaper input imports will only be truly meaningful if accompanied by technological upgrading in processing, greater domestic value addition and the formation of new production–export value chains (for example, fertilisers for agricultural restructuring; plastics as inputs for the automotive and electronics industries; coal for restructuring the power generation mix).

Finally, the EAEU – with an FTA already in force with Viet Nam – still offers considerable untapped potential. As high-standard FTAs (such as the EVFTA, CPTPP and RCEP) are reshaping global supply chains, Viet Nam can view the EAEU as an “additional space” to diversify markets and sources of supply and to pilot new forms of cooperation in agriculture, food processing, cold-chain logistics and supporting industries. Achieving this will require close coordination between government agencies (to design promotion mechanisms, remove technical barriers and support payments), business associations (to develop tailored strategies for each EAEU member market) and the business community (to enhance compliance capabilities, seek local distribution partners and invest in warehousing and trans-shipment hubs).

If Viet Nam can make effective use of existing conditions and pursue a proactive strategy, the EAEU could become one of the “supporting pillars” helping the country to reduce dependence on a few major markets and to enhance the resilience of its trade growth in an increasingly volatile global economic and political environment.

Việt Thành